http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/09/queen-elizabeth-ipad_n_859408.html
Disclosure: I may or may not own any of the securities mentioned and am not an investment advisor. Please do your own due diligence before investing in any securities mentioned.
Showing posts with label AAPL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AAPL. Show all posts
Monday, May 9, 2011
Sunday, May 1, 2011
The hiatus is over
Sorry for the break. Been busy starting a new job. In that time, I read this interesting article on how far off deficit projections have been and the major source of the deficit.
Also, I've decided to start selling Apple puts monthly in the benjanomics portfolio. I recently sold a May $330 put for $1,100 right before earnings and are now worth around $170. I'm going to buy it back and look to sell a June put soon, either the $350 or below on any pull back. If the stock ends up being "put" to us, I intend to sell calls to continually lower our basis. With the white iPhone coming out and selling out in China on day 1, continued iPad 2 stockouts, and a future iPhone and iOS operating system due sometime this year, it's only a matter of time until Apple is at $400+.
Oh, and I just ordered an iPhone 4 today!
Disclosure: I may or may not own any of the securities mentioned and am not an investment advisor. Please do your own due diligence before investing in any securities mentioned.
Also, I've decided to start selling Apple puts monthly in the benjanomics portfolio. I recently sold a May $330 put for $1,100 right before earnings and are now worth around $170. I'm going to buy it back and look to sell a June put soon, either the $350 or below on any pull back. If the stock ends up being "put" to us, I intend to sell calls to continually lower our basis. With the white iPhone coming out and selling out in China on day 1, continued iPad 2 stockouts, and a future iPhone and iOS operating system due sometime this year, it's only a matter of time until Apple is at $400+.
Oh, and I just ordered an iPhone 4 today!
Disclosure: I may or may not own any of the securities mentioned and am not an investment advisor. Please do your own due diligence before investing in any securities mentioned.
Thursday, March 17, 2011
Manipulation 101
Today an analyst at JMP Securities (interesting how its so similar to JPM.....accidental credibility perhaps) did the unthinkable and downgraded Apple. This sent the stock down nearly 5% on the day and spooked a lot of people. The time during options expiration week is pretty interesting, as well as how he ignored the insatiable demand for the iPad 2. But his reasons for downgrading are also very suspect. Here is a link to the WSJ discussing it.
He cites slowing sales growth at Hon Hai, the owner of the main manufacturer of some of Apple's products, as evidence that Apple is not producing as many products. Correlation does not imply causation. This is just ridiculous. You can look around at all the sold out iPads, the fact that Verizon now has 12% of the iPhone traffic and has only been selling them a month, and see that if anything, Apple is producing more!
His logic goes like this: Hon Hai's sales are decreasing. Hon Hai's makes Apple products. Therefore, Apple must not be producing as many products and sales will fall. How do we know they just aren't producing as many products for other people because people just want iPads and iPhones? Maybe they are just slowing down because of the Chinese New Year? Perhaps they just can't afford to make some products because they operate on razor thin margins and the drubbing of the dollar has made it unprofitable to make them anymore? I would take this report with a grain of salt.
I honestly would not be surprised if this firm has a short position in Apple and is just trying to manipulate the stock for their own gain. But it doesn't matter, because now you can get AAPL even cheaper!
Hopefully this guy will be banned from buying an iPad!
Also, here is why there is a shortage of iPads.
Disclosure: I may or may not own any of the securities mentioned and am not an investment advisor. Please do your own due diligence before investing in any securities mentioned.
He cites slowing sales growth at Hon Hai, the owner of the main manufacturer of some of Apple's products, as evidence that Apple is not producing as many products. Correlation does not imply causation. This is just ridiculous. You can look around at all the sold out iPads, the fact that Verizon now has 12% of the iPhone traffic and has only been selling them a month, and see that if anything, Apple is producing more!
His logic goes like this: Hon Hai's sales are decreasing. Hon Hai's makes Apple products. Therefore, Apple must not be producing as many products and sales will fall. How do we know they just aren't producing as many products for other people because people just want iPads and iPhones? Maybe they are just slowing down because of the Chinese New Year? Perhaps they just can't afford to make some products because they operate on razor thin margins and the drubbing of the dollar has made it unprofitable to make them anymore? I would take this report with a grain of salt.
I honestly would not be surprised if this firm has a short position in Apple and is just trying to manipulate the stock for their own gain. But it doesn't matter, because now you can get AAPL even cheaper!
Hopefully this guy will be banned from buying an iPad!
Also, here is why there is a shortage of iPads.
Disclosure: I may or may not own any of the securities mentioned and am not an investment advisor. Please do your own due diligence before investing in any securities mentioned.
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
The iPad says there's no inflation, so there is no inflation
Almost every commodity, other than natural gas, is up the past 6 months. Oil, corn, copper, iron, wheat, soybeans have all had tremendous increases in price, some of them doubling and tripling in price. But the federal reserve says to ignore all that because this year's iPad model is the same price as last years.
Unfortunately, as one attendee said, " "I can't eat an iPad." I also can't put an iPad in my gas tank. But I can kill the green pigs that ate my eggs, so it's all cool. Perhaps we should give iPads to all the people rioting around the world because they can't afford food. In fact the first generation iPad has actually dropped in price, which is clearly evidence of the dreaded deflation.
Disclosure: I may or may not own any of the securities mentioned and am not an investment advisor. Please do your own due diligence before investing in any securities mentioned.
Unfortunately, as one attendee said, " "I can't eat an iPad." I also can't put an iPad in my gas tank. But I can kill the green pigs that ate my eggs, so it's all cool. Perhaps we should give iPads to all the people rioting around the world because they can't afford food. In fact the first generation iPad has actually dropped in price, which is clearly evidence of the dreaded deflation.
Disclosure: I may or may not own any of the securities mentioned and am not an investment advisor. Please do your own due diligence before investing in any securities mentioned.
Sunday, March 13, 2011
iPad 2 News
If I do any more post about the iPad I'm going to have to rename the blog iPadanomics. But here's one more with links to relevant iPad 2 news.
- Forbes says 70% of iPad 2 buyers are new to the iPad
- How much does an iPad 2 costs to make? Depends on who you are asking, but the profit margins are pretty huge based on these estimates.
- Here's a movie created entirely on the iPhone 4 and edited on an ipad 2
- This guy paid $900 to be first in line to buy the new iPad
- This analyst says Apple sold 500,000 iPads this weekend
- Barely 20 years after the fall of communism, Russians are capitalizing on iPad 2 arbitrage
Here are a few ways to capitalize on Apple over the next few months:
1. Buy vertical call spreads. The Jan 12 345/355 call spread is currently going for around $500, and will return $500 if Apple is above $355 in January 2012.
2. Sell Apple cash secured puts. The Jan 12 $255 put is selling for $10.50. If apple is below $255 in January, you will have to buy 100 shares of apple for a net cost of $244.5. The $300 put is selling for $21.15. If Apple is over $300 in January, you keep the full $2,115 or have to own Apple for a net cost of $278ish. Seems like a good bet to me.
3. Sell covered calls on stock. Buy 100 shares of Apple and sell a Jan 12 $400 call for $24. You immediately lower your basis to around $327 and can still participate in any upward movement in the stock up until $400. Total return if Apple is above $400 in January is $7,300 per covered call or around 21%.
Disclosure: I may or may not own any of the securities mentioned and am not an investment advisor. Please do your own due diligence before investing in any securities mentioned.
- Forbes says 70% of iPad 2 buyers are new to the iPad
- How much does an iPad 2 costs to make? Depends on who you are asking, but the profit margins are pretty huge based on these estimates.
- Here's a movie created entirely on the iPhone 4 and edited on an ipad 2
- This guy paid $900 to be first in line to buy the new iPad
- This analyst says Apple sold 500,000 iPads this weekend
- Barely 20 years after the fall of communism, Russians are capitalizing on iPad 2 arbitrage
Here are a few ways to capitalize on Apple over the next few months:
1. Buy vertical call spreads. The Jan 12 345/355 call spread is currently going for around $500, and will return $500 if Apple is above $355 in January 2012.
2. Sell Apple cash secured puts. The Jan 12 $255 put is selling for $10.50. If apple is below $255 in January, you will have to buy 100 shares of apple for a net cost of $244.5. The $300 put is selling for $21.15. If Apple is over $300 in January, you keep the full $2,115 or have to own Apple for a net cost of $278ish. Seems like a good bet to me.
3. Sell covered calls on stock. Buy 100 shares of Apple and sell a Jan 12 $400 call for $24. You immediately lower your basis to around $327 and can still participate in any upward movement in the stock up until $400. Total return if Apple is above $400 in January is $7,300 per covered call or around 21%.
Disclosure: I may or may not own any of the securities mentioned and am not an investment advisor. Please do your own due diligence before investing in any securities mentioned.
iPad 2 First Impressions
I've had my iPad 2 since Friday and i've had a chance to play with it. Here are some first impressions:
-It's unbelievably smooth and fast.
-The new gyroscope is pretty cool. When playing Jenga, you spin around to go around the tower of blocks.
-The cameras are pretty awful, but work fine for what they are intended to do.
-Watching Netflix and Xfinity on it is awesome. Netflix needs to beef up their streaming library though.
-There are reports that there are light leakage issues around the edges and corners. I notice it a little in mine, but it's not terrible. I might try exchanging it for a new one, but I haven't lost any sleep over it.
-The lack of Adobe Flash doesn't bother me one bit. I have not run into any problems surfing the internet, plus there are apps that convert flash to HTML5 that can be downloaded in the App Store.
All in all, I think buying the iPad 2 was a great decision. I love it. It's simple to use but is extremely useful in so many little ways. I think it's going to be a huge windfall for Apple. I just went with the wifi only 16gb version because I don't need to use it for holding tons of music and videos. I primarily use it for apps, streaming music from my itunes or pandora, watching movies on Netflix, and playing games. Words with friends is my favorite. If you wanna play, hit me up. Username is Flenjamin.
Disclosure: I may or may not own any of the securities mentioned and am not an investment advisor. Please do your own due diligence before investing in any securities mentioned.
-It's unbelievably smooth and fast.
-The new gyroscope is pretty cool. When playing Jenga, you spin around to go around the tower of blocks.
-The cameras are pretty awful, but work fine for what they are intended to do.
-Watching Netflix and Xfinity on it is awesome. Netflix needs to beef up their streaming library though.
-There are reports that there are light leakage issues around the edges and corners. I notice it a little in mine, but it's not terrible. I might try exchanging it for a new one, but I haven't lost any sleep over it.
-The lack of Adobe Flash doesn't bother me one bit. I have not run into any problems surfing the internet, plus there are apps that convert flash to HTML5 that can be downloaded in the App Store.
All in all, I think buying the iPad 2 was a great decision. I love it. It's simple to use but is extremely useful in so many little ways. I think it's going to be a huge windfall for Apple. I just went with the wifi only 16gb version because I don't need to use it for holding tons of music and videos. I primarily use it for apps, streaming music from my itunes or pandora, watching movies on Netflix, and playing games. Words with friends is my favorite. If you wanna play, hit me up. Username is Flenjamin.
Disclosure: I may or may not own any of the securities mentioned and am not an investment advisor. Please do your own due diligence before investing in any securities mentioned.
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
Target (TGT)
I actually bought this one in the Benjanomics virtual portfolio last week, but didn't get around to writing about it until now. Luckily, Target has held steady and the trade can still be had for a good price.
I have previously written about two other retail stocks, Kohls and Wal Mart. While I am hesitant to own so much retail in one portfolio, I am comfortable owning these and think that they offer good value to any investor's portfolio.
I personally shop at Target quite often. Being in Atlanta, you are either ITP (inside 285) or OTP (outside 285). Since I am ITP and their are more Targets ITP, I go to Target more often. Also, I think the stores are laid out better and aren't as overwhelming as Wal-Mart. And recently, for the first time in four years, Target actually has lower prices than Wal-Mart. Another thing working in Targets favor is that it will be selling the gadget of the year, the iPad 2! Target currently sells at a PE of 12.91 and has a forward PE of 10.99. So here is the buy-write:
Buy 100 TGT at $51.64: (5,164)
Sell 1 Jan 12 52.5 Call @4.00: 400
Sell 1 Jan 12 52.5 Put @5.50: 550
------------------------------------------------------------
Total outlay: (4,214)
Total Return: $1,096 on a stock that need to rise by .36 over the next 9 months.
Break Even: $47ish
And to all the people that say "but gas prices are rising and they are going to kill retail!" I say ride the Marta bus.
Disclosure: I may or may not own any of the securities mentioned and am not an investment advisor. Please do your own due diligence before investing in any securities mentioned.
I have previously written about two other retail stocks, Kohls and Wal Mart. While I am hesitant to own so much retail in one portfolio, I am comfortable owning these and think that they offer good value to any investor's portfolio.
I personally shop at Target quite often. Being in Atlanta, you are either ITP (inside 285) or OTP (outside 285). Since I am ITP and their are more Targets ITP, I go to Target more often. Also, I think the stores are laid out better and aren't as overwhelming as Wal-Mart. And recently, for the first time in four years, Target actually has lower prices than Wal-Mart. Another thing working in Targets favor is that it will be selling the gadget of the year, the iPad 2! Target currently sells at a PE of 12.91 and has a forward PE of 10.99. So here is the buy-write:
Buy 100 TGT at $51.64: (5,164)
Sell 1 Jan 12 52.5 Call @4.00: 400
Sell 1 Jan 12 52.5 Put @5.50: 550
------------------------------------------------------------
Total outlay: (4,214)
Total Return: $1,096 on a stock that need to rise by .36 over the next 9 months.
Break Even: $47ish
And to all the people that say "but gas prices are rising and they are going to kill retail!" I say ride the Marta bus.
Disclosure: I may or may not own any of the securities mentioned and am not an investment advisor. Please do your own due diligence before investing in any securities mentioned.
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
Is China rethinking their one-child policy?
Chinese authorities apparently have been reading Benjanomics and are thinking of taking my advice about their one-child policy. They are thinking of lifting it . Imagine what happens to AAPL when all those Chinese people start using iPhones and Ford when they are all driving Ford's to shuttle their 2 child families to and fro. Also, imagine what happens to DBA and other agriculture etfs when there are a billion more Chinese demanding food.
Maybe it's time to learn mandarin? Nee-how!
Maybe it's time to learn mandarin? Nee-how!
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| I can have a brother now! |
Friday, March 4, 2011
AAPL/BAC Trade
Sell 1 Apple Jan 12 265 put for $11.10 (1,110 per contract)
Use the proceeds to buy 10 BAC Jan 13 12.5/15 vertical call spreads for 1.24.
Total Cost: $130 (will need to set aside around 2,500 in margin on the short Apple put)
Max Profit: $1,110 if Apple is above 265 on Jan 12 and $1,260 if BAC is above $15 in Jan 2013 for a total of $2,360.
Use the proceeds to buy 10 BAC Jan 13 12.5/15 vertical call spreads for 1.24.
Total Cost: $130 (will need to set aside around 2,500 in margin on the short Apple put)
Max Profit: $1,110 if Apple is above 265 on Jan 12 and $1,260 if BAC is above $15 in Jan 2013 for a total of $2,360.
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
iPad 2 has claimed its first victim
iPad 2 just did the same thing to ZAGG that Charlie Sheen plans to do to anyone who gets in his way: destroy them violently. Zagg makes protective coverings for phones and tablets. Today, Apple announced it has its own covering for its newest version of the iPad. The news sent ZAGG's price down 25%. Zagg needs to get some of that Tiger's Blood that is coursing through Charlie Sheen's veins.
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
iPad 2 coming March 2
There was a flurry of rumors yesterday that helped beat down Apple's stock. First, there was the National Enquirer reporting that Steve Jobs only has 6 months to live. Then there was some Asian hedgefund saying that the iPad 2 was delayed until September. Fortunately, they were wrong about the iPad 2 as Apple announced that it will be unveiled on March 2.
As for Steve Jobs, he just demolished his house to build a new one. So obviously he is planning on sticking around longer than 6 months.
Apple to $500!
As for Steve Jobs, he just demolished his house to build a new one. So obviously he is planning on sticking around longer than 6 months.
Apple to $500!
Thursday, February 10, 2011
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
Somebody call the NAACP, because this guy hates diversity!
This guy is betting it all on Apple and Google. I hope he has taken a little out and bought an iPad!
http://blogs.reuters.com/prism-money/2011/02/08/diversification-defiance-all-your-eggs-in-one-basket/
I think he should think about some insurance on his gains! Perhaps putting a collar on by selling the 410 Jan 12 calls for 19.70 per contract and buying the 300 puts for 18.05. Cheap insurance policy.
http://blogs.reuters.com/prism-money/2011/02/08/diversification-defiance-all-your-eggs-in-one-basket/
I think he should think about some insurance on his gains! Perhaps putting a collar on by selling the 410 Jan 12 calls for 19.70 per contract and buying the 300 puts for 18.05. Cheap insurance policy.
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| Don't listen to those idiots! Hop on my iPad, I'll take you to $450! |
Monday, February 7, 2011
Apple Update
I have written about 2 possible apple trades here and here. Here's a good article about why Needham & Co have raised their price target to $450! This bodes well for our two previous trades.
http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2011/02/07/apple-needham-ups-target-to-450-ipad-growing-like-hybrid-corn/?mod=wsj_share_twitter
http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2011/02/07/apple-needham-ups-target-to-450-ipad-growing-like-hybrid-corn/?mod=wsj_share_twitter
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Verizon is getting the iPhone
Verizon is finally getting the iPhone. This is a good time to do a buy-write on Verizon. It has a forward PE of 13, yields 5.4%, and recently announced a 100M share buyback.
Buy 100 VZ @ $36.35: ($3,635)
Sell 1 Jan 13 $40 call: $215
Sell 1 Jan 13 $35 put: $525
--------------------------------------------------
Total outlay: $2,895
total return if >$40 in Jan 2013: ($365 appreciation + $215 +$525 + $390 dividends) = $1,495 or 52% on a stock that needs to go up by 10% in 2 yrs.
Breakeven: 31.98 or 12% lower than today's price
Buy 100 VZ @ $36.35: ($3,635)
Sell 1 Jan 13 $40 call: $215
Sell 1 Jan 13 $35 put: $525
--------------------------------------------------
Total outlay: $2,895
total return if >$40 in Jan 2013: ($365 appreciation + $215 +$525 + $390 dividends) = $1,495 or 52% on a stock that needs to go up by 10% in 2 yrs.
Breakeven: 31.98 or 12% lower than today's price
Thursday, January 20, 2011
Apple will rule the world
Is apple a great company? Yes! Should you rush out and buy their stock at $340/share? Probably not!
Here's a better way to play it that can lower you entry, let you use less capital, and still profit whether apple goes up or down!
Most analyst are projecting apple to go up to $400/share. I personally don't have enough money laying around to buy enough apple shares to make it mean anything. So another way to participate in this rally is to sell some apple puts.
Currently, the Jan 12 $250 apple put is selling for around $10, or $1,000 per contract.
You can sell it today and collect $1,000 and still participate in any upside movement. If somehow Apple is below $250 on jan 2012, then you will be forced to buy 100 apple for $25,000. However, you can close this trade early, or roll the option out to a later date. The best part is that you can use the $1,000 to buy something else!
Here's a better way to play it that can lower you entry, let you use less capital, and still profit whether apple goes up or down!
Most analyst are projecting apple to go up to $400/share. I personally don't have enough money laying around to buy enough apple shares to make it mean anything. So another way to participate in this rally is to sell some apple puts.
Currently, the Jan 12 $250 apple put is selling for around $10, or $1,000 per contract.
You can sell it today and collect $1,000 and still participate in any upside movement. If somehow Apple is below $250 on jan 2012, then you will be forced to buy 100 apple for $25,000. However, you can close this trade early, or roll the option out to a later date. The best part is that you can use the $1,000 to buy something else!
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Go Apple go!
Looking to buy some Vertical Call Spreads this week or next. Looking at $10 wide strikes and trying to get in for a net debit of $5 in order to realize profits of 100% or greater. 355/365 strike is around $4.50 this am.